Thnking Backwards

Posted on June 16, 2010 by Ronald T. Brown, Ph.D.

The book, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, gives techniques for seeing issues from a new and innovative perspective. The techniques help break your existing mind-set by causing you to think and process thoughts in a different and unaccustomed manner. One technique given in the book is called “

Thinking Backwards

“...

Thinking Backwards is a creative technique for exploring a new idea. As an innovative exercise, start with an assumption that something you did not expect - has actually occurred. Then, put yourself into the future, looking back to explain how this

could

have happened. Think what must have happened six months or a year earlier to set the stage for the realization of this outcome (good or bad) - What must have happened six months, or a year before, to prepare the way - and then work your processing on toward the present.

Thinking backwards changes the focus from whether something

might

happen to how it

can

happen. Putting yourself into the future creates a different perspective that keeps you from getting too anchored in the present. When thinking this way, one can often construct a plausible scenario for an event they had previously thought unlikely. Thinking backwards is particularly helpful for situations that may have a low probability of occurring - but would have very serious consequences if they did occur. (ie, BP’s oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico!)

(The ”

Crystal Ball

“ approach works in much the same way as thinking backwards. Imagine that a “perfect” intelligence source (such as God, or a crystal ball) has told you a certain assumption you hold is

wrong

. You must then develop a scenario to explain how this could be true. If you can develop a plausible scenario, this suggests your assumption needs to be open to further question and review.)